Case study: How Ayvens transitioned Virgin Media to EV

In 2024, Virgin Media approached Ayvens with three questions:

• 1.
  1.
  How much it would cost to transition its fleet of 5,500 vehicles (including 4,800 LCVs) to a 100% sustainable, zero-emissions fleet by 2030?
• 2.
  2.
  What would be the TCO and CO2 impact of this transition?
• 3.
  3.
  What would be the hidden costs and potential market dynamics, especially considering the UK’s ZEV (Zero Emission Vehicle) mandate?

To provide robust cost predictions to Virgin Media, the Ayvens team undertook a multidimensional process that included:

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  Cost analysis: the team undertook an in-depth cost analysis, established a TCO baseline for the existing diesel fleet, identified the financial/environmental impacts of a diesel-to-eLCV transition and assessed the cost implications of ZEV.
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  Event matrix: the team developed a matrix of potential events that could occur in the market and arranged them by likelihood. This included political changes, zero emission vehicle mandate updates, supply chain dynamics and manufacturer trends.
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  Scenario modelling: the team modelled multiple scenarios, combining events (based on likelihood) with their cost implications between the present and 2030. This included:

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    TCO: the team modelled Total Cost of Ownership factors such as residual vehicle value, downtime whilst EVs are charging, along with upfront/ongoing infrastructure costs.
  • •
    Emissions: emissions calculations were also included, especially balancing the initial cost of a 100% EV transition with overall environmental benefits in the short and long term.

The Ayvens consultancy team used its unequalled experience, expertise and wealth of vehicle data to supply Virgin Media with an optimal strategy for transitioning its van fleet to eLCVs by 2030.

Benefits include:

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  A staged transition: a staged approach (versus an all-in-one transition) allows the business to mete out costs over time, avoid contract lock-in and limit emissions by purchasing more advanced EVs that become available closer to 2030.
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  Robust decision-making strategy: armed with a predictive event matrix, Virgin Media have a robust decision tree (e.g., if X event transpires, then Y approach is optimal, and this will incur Z cost) that enables them to manage actions/costs over time.
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  Downtime risk reduction: a staggered transition to eLCVs also allows the business to avoid vehicle availability issues that would present if all its vehicles were suddenly switched to EVs. A gradual shift will allow the business to introduce charging protocols that allow for uptime/charging flexibility.
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  Emissions goals: despite the altered timeline, the Ayvens team has shown that VM will be able to meaningfully reduce CO2 emissions and hit sustainability and environment targets on time.
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  Cost savings: choosing a staged transition allows Virgin Media to save up to £40m versus a single, all-in-one transition.

Such has been the success of this project that Virgin Media has now requested that the team repeat this method for its fleet of cars.

Want to find out how Ayvens can support your organisation's transition towards an electric fleet? Visit our EV area to learn more.