7 themes and trends for 2026 and the road ahead

We asked Matthew Walters and Tash Turner from the Ayvens Consulting team to look back over the year so far and identify some of the key themes affecting fleets, along with the developments that could have an impact in the months and years ahead.

The automotive industry is increasingly global, which means events happening thousands of miles away can affect fleets in the UK. The conflict in the Middle East has been a contributing factor, with its impact on petrol and diesel prices, as well as wider effects on the movement and potential costs of parts and materials.

However, there’s also the AI build-out and its effect on the cost of minerals and metals used in the automotive industry. Plus, we have tariffs and trade restrictions affecting prices, the continuing global push for decarbonisation and new international players shaking up the UK fleet market. This means that fleets need to be aware of what’s happening globally to make effective plans for their needs.

Recent research into the life-cycle emissions of differently fuelled cars and vans has made the case for EVs even more compelling. Petrol and diesel vehicles have emissions of 230g/km or more, while hybrids are around 160 to 180 g/km. In comparison, battery EVs are around 50 to 60 g/km depending on the grid mix.

To put that as a headline message, battery electric vehicles have life cycle emissions at least 73% lower than petrol cars on a per-km basis. For fleets that are taking their ESG requirements seriously, this is a clear indication of the value of EVs in helping them to achieve their goals.

Huge amounts of money are being poured into battery R&D and there are some very promising technologies being worked on. We’re already starting to see battery HGVs, which is something that we wouldn’t have expected even five years ago.

Manufacturers are already improving mainstream battery chemistries. Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries are becoming increasingly common due to their lower cost, improved safety characteristics and reduced reliance on critical minerals such as cobalt and nickel.

A longer-term emerging technology that’s of particular interest is lithium-air batteries.

Laboratory prototypes have demonstrated energy densities exceeding 1,200 Wh/kg, potentially more than four times higher than many current EV batteries. While significant technical hurdles remain before commercialisation, the technology highlights the pace of innovation taking place within battery research.

This development won’t be arriving this year, or even next, but it’s worth being aware of what’s on the way, as fleets that are ready to take advantage of new opportunities are more likely to benefit from them.

Two of the biggest themes affecting the UK fleet industry are the linked issues of the powertrain shift and the requirements of ESG. When you hear powertrain, you might think it just means the move from petrol and diesel to electric vehicles. However, it’s now a much wider topic that affects everything from vehicle availability and cost to the second-hand vehicle market and charging requirements. This means that it should be treated as an integral part of how organisations think about fleet strategy.

Similarly, ESG has moved from a ‘nice to have’ to a board-level priority and the choice of vehicles in a fleet is helping organisations achieve these goals. We’ve been supporting customers in these areas all year – and look forward to doing much more in the months ahead.

Battery electric cars made up around 25% of new car registrations this year, and they’re supported by a more mature market. There are now over 150 EV models available in the UK and nearly three-quarters are below the threshold for the VED expensive car supplement. We’re also seeing continued improvements in efficiency and range, plus the infrastructure is getting a lot better.

There are now over 120,000 public charging devices in the UK, including 27,000 operating at 50kW or faster. To put this in context, the Department for Transport estimates that there are now nearly twice as many charge points as there are fuel pumps. However, there needs to be even more progress to reach the requirements of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate.

For electric vans, the picture is more mixed. Just under 10% of new registrations are electric, reflecting an ongoing hesitation among some operators to transition. The most positive sign is the increased coverage across small and medium vans, though there’s still very limited progress in the largest sizes. Adoption remains more challenging in larger van segments where payload, range and operational requirements continue to present barriers to electrification.

Despite this hesitation, the foundations are being put in place for progress to be made and we encourage fleet managers to keep a close eye on developments.

In our conversations with fleets, we’re finding that it’s a range of factors driving them to adopt electric vehicles and make progress towards net zero. There are the regulations, of course, but also financial, environmental and employee pressures.

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  ESG: Many organisations now have formal sustainability commitments, such as carbon reduction targets for 2030 or 2035. Electrifying a fleet can be an effective way of making progress towards these targets.
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  Legislation: With Road to Zero strategies, the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate and clean air zones, there’s a clear direction of travel from policymakers. Plus, with fleet replacement cycles, the phase-out of ICE vehicles in 2030 and 2035 is already coming into play.
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  Tax incentives: There continue to be financial benefits for employers and employees to adopt electric vehicles.

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  Employees: Environmental credentials are playing an increasing role in employee recruitment, engagement and retention.

These are compelling reasons to consider electric vehicles, but any decisions still need to work commercially. Companies could benefit from a total cost of operation (TCO) analysis that shows how to electrify in the most cost-effective and operationally efficient way.

As fleets move beyond simple vehicle comparisons, understanding how drivers use and charge vehicles is becoming increasingly important. Detailed, in-depth TCO analysis can help organisations identify where electrification delivers the greatest operational and financial benefit.

Some changes were made to the ZEV Mandate last year, meaning petrol and diesel vans can now continue to be manufactured until 2035. However, there is still a requirement for new cars that solely use internal combustion engines to be phased out by 2030, and all new cars and vans are expected to be electric from 2035. There are targets every year along the way, with penalties for those who fail to meet them.

There’s a review planned for next year, with a consultation this year, so it’s an area that’s in constant change – though this is focused on the detail, rather than the underlying aims. Given its importance to fleet strategy and planning, we will keep our clients fully informed about any developments.